Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
