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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."